News you can use
News you can use
Havre Daily News/Nikki Carlson, file photo
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway trains warm up for their long track journeys in minus 23-degree weather at the Havre train station in December 2005.
People living in what was about to become Hill County 100 years ago likely had no idea what would be happening in the region today. Perhaps looking at what could be here at the end of another 100 years is even more difficult.
Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana in Missoula, said making even short-term forecasts can be very difficult. Extending those over decades or a century exacerbates the difficulty.
In order to make a long-range forecast, trends have to be correctly identified and extended out over time, he said.
"If you get the trends wrong, the long-term forecast can be pretty tough, " Barkey said.
In 1912, the residents of what became Hill and Blaine counties petitioned and held an election to split off from Chouteau County, creating the two new counties. The creation of Hill County came at the start of a new rush of homesteading in the region, and at the demise of what had been an economic and social driver in the region — the military installation Fort Assinniboine, which was decommissioned by the federal government in 1911.
Two main drivers for the local economy in 1912 still are in that position today. Agriculture and the railroad — the Great Northern Railway in 1912, now the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway — continue to be main economic forces in the region.
Since 1912, a major regional hospital and a branch of the state university system have joined the economy of Hill County, and the creation of Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation in southern Hill County and the northern edge of Chouteau County in 1916 also has had a major impact on life in the area.
What will the future hold? What will be in the area in 2112? No one knows.
Hill County Commissioner Mike Wendland said he believes, whatever comes, changes in technology will be a major factor.
"What we've seen in our lifetime is probably nothing …," he said. "It's hard to say what we'll be doing in a hundred years. "
Havre Mayor Tim Solomon said he believes there is the opportunity to grow the area's population and economy. But, he added, the small-town, friendly attitude in this area is something he wants to keep, and he doesn't want to see a fast-paced boom like eastern Montana and western North Dakota are experiencing with the oil boom.
"I think it's best to take some time …," Solomon said. "I think we want to keep a lot of what we have."
One consistent comment is about the single largest segment in the Hill County economy — agriculture is here to stay.
"I think, if we're going to feed a growing (world) population, agriculture definitely will be alive and well here, " said Joe Broesder, Hill County Extension agent.
Paul Tuss, executive director of Bear Paw Development Corp., thinks agriculture still will be a major player, possibly bringing even a bigger share of the local economy.
"Now, what that agricultural component looks like, I think, is the question, " he said.
Tuss said he can envision production agriculture still growing crops such as red winter or spring wheat, with increasing technological efficiency possibly having even fewer people farming larger farms. What he also can see, he said, is people farming smaller plots with value added to crops allowing them to make a different kind of a living.
"I see … folks involved in, perhaps, growing something we're not even growing right now on a 30-acre plot and being able to sustain a family, and that's exciting, " he said.
Wendland tied technology to that idea. While the technology could increase the efficiency and effectiveness of raising commodities, technology also could be a major component of transforming the commodity into a value-added product, and marketing that product, he said.
Growing energy could be a part of the way agriculture looks in the years to come.
Montana State University-Northern has done extensive research and testing on alternative fuels in recent years, with a focus on converting oil from locally grown crops to fuels like biodiesel and jet fuel.
"I think we've tapped only some of the bio-energy … potential, " said Mike Zook, Hill County Farm Service Agency executive director.
Tuss said that as the world shifts its focus from petroleum to alternative fuels, farmers on the Hi-Line will shift as well.
"I know that we're innovative enough here in Montana and on the Hi-Line, and smart enough, to change with the changing economic realities of our national and global economy," Tuss said "Will we change? There is no question we will change. How quickly the pace of change will occur is the big question."
A question closely related to the future of agriculture is the number of people living in Hill County.
After an explosion from 1950 to 1960 — according to U. S. Census Bureau data, the population of Hill County grew more than 30 percent in that decade, to 18,653 — the population of the county has stagnated or declined. The population listed in the 2010 census is 16,096.
Part of the decline is in the number of people in agriculture. As the size of farms and ranches and the number of families in agriculture declined, the number of children in those families also declined.
As the number of families involved in agriculture dropped from the heyday of the number during the homesteading era, so did the number of people in many Hi-Line towns, with some disappearing from the map entirely.
While some believe that people will come to the region and the population again will grow, that likely won't happen in the field of agriculture.
Hill County Commissioner Kathy Bessette said that, with bigger and more efficient equipment, fewer people are needed to produce the crops.
Unless some form of value-added agriculture can add to the numbers, Hill County Commissioner Jeff LaVoi said, the population involved in agriculture probably will not increase. But there is a limit to how many value-added ag operations can function in an area, he added.
However, Bessette said, the number of people in the county still could grow. Bringing new businesses and industries to the county.
"That would bring people in," she said.
Tuss said he thinks the population will grow, as an offshoot to new technology.
"As we continue to embrace the technological advances that come at us at warp speed every single day, you're going to be able to live in a place like Chinook or Havre or Chester or Box Elder, and you're going to be every bit as productive and successful and entrepreneurial as if you're living in Denver, Los Angeles or Mexico City, " he said.
Tuss said he can envision a trend — likely developing gradually over many decades — where people will choose to live in rural communities where they can live and raise their families safely and happily, without the negative attributes associated with inner cities and metropolitan areas.
But Barkey said that, although there is some movement toward rural areas by people concerned about quality of life and so on, the major shift is in the other direction.
Current trends tend to show people, as they become more and more specialized in work abilities, migrating to urban areas where those abilities can be marketed, he said. Even with the ability to use modern information technology allowing people to work outside of metropolitan areas, the major trend is for people to move to rural areas close to more urban centers, he said.
"If I were to extract from trends that exist today, I would have to admit, and this would not make me popular in Hill County, the migration and technology trend I was describing seems to be the dominant one at the moment."
But, Barkey said, it is very difficult to make accurate predictions over the long term. Too many factors can change the trends.
"Talk like this overlooks everything that makes things go up and down in the short run," he said.
LaVoi also said the technology could bring people to, or back to, the area.
"You don't have to be in New York City (to set up a successful business) and you can set up right here," he said. "It does open some possibilities."
Solomon said there is evidence that that already is happening in Hill County.
"I think it already has, as far as a lot of people working from home …, " he said. "And a lot of it is quality of life. (That is) one big benefit I think we have on other areas."
One area that has not seen a declining population is the Indian reservation mostly within Hill County. Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation saw a 24-percent growth from 2000 to 2010, with the U. S. Census Bureau listing an increase of 647 people.
Tuss said that as the Chippewa Cree Tribe works to improve the infrastructure and economy on the reservation, it could become a bigger and bigger player in the economy of the county.
"I think the role will be significant, and I think the role will be an ever-growing one …, " Tuss said. "My sense is that if you were to fast-forward to a hundred years from now, I think that you would probably see an economy on the Rocky Boy's Indian Reservation that is more mature than it presently is, with a higher number of private businesses (operating) on the reservation. "
Bessette said growth on the reservation could increase how much work the tribal and county governments do together. The Hill County government and the Chippewa Cree Tribe already cooperate in some projects, such as road work.
"That may increase a little bit more, " she said.
LaVoi said that, as the population and economy grow at Rocky Boy, it could change the dynamics of economic relationships. If a number of private businesses offer goods and services at Rocky Boy, it could reduce the amount of business tribal members do in Havre and other parts of the county, he said.
Another common belief is that one of the creators of the dynamics of Hill County — the railroad — will survive for the next century or more.
It was James J. Hill's railroad, the Great Northern, that promoted homesteading in the region and even transported many settlers here. Many towns along the Hi-Line — the region is named for the rail itself, the northernmost rail line in the state — grew out of water stops for the railroad, and Havre itself grew out of a major stop for the railroad. Even the county was named after the head of the Great Northern Railway.
And the importance and presence of the industry is likely to continue.
"I don't think you can move freight any cheaper than by rail, " Wendland said.
Tuss said the same.
"I don't see the railroad's presence in Havre, Montana, declining in any way, " he said. "I see it as increasing. "
Another main force in the area — the public schools — also should remain in action through the next century, said the superintendent of the Havre Public Schools.
Superintendent Andy Carlson believes that technology will change how schools function and the way things are taught.
"But I don't think you ever replace that classroom, " he said.
He said the district now is in the process of reviewing and rewriting its mission and purpose statements, which will guide how the board of trustees acts in the next 25 or 50 years. He encouraged local residents and parents to get involved in that process. But, whatever changes are made, it will be focused on how to continue the tradition of providing a quality education, Carlson said. The schools themselves will remain.
"I'm hopeful there will always be Hi-Liters going around singing 'It's a Marshmallow World' around this time of year, " he said. "I think there are some traditions that are important to keep. "
What new opportunities will come to the county are unknown, although the opportunities could be endless.
"Somebody once said, 'The only thing that's constant is change, ' " Tuss said. "It would be foolish for anybody to indicate with any amount of certainty that the economy of Hill County … 100 years from now is going to be like it is today. That's just not reality.
"The economy of this area five years from now is going to be different than it is today. … I think there's the potential for significant changes in this region's economy, " he added.
Speculation on what could come to the area ranges from marketing locally raised grass-fed beef to raising and producing alternative fuels, from selling wind power to operating online stores or offering services out of a living room or basement through the modern information highway.
Barkey said that, at least, the economy of Hill County appears to be solid.
Even during the recession from 2007-09, the Hill County economy stayed fairly stable. Barkey said that is likely to continue in the near term.
"The future for transportation rail, agriculture and energy look pretty good, " he said.
But, that is not talking about growth.
"Expansion and growth, that would require something to be growing, adding capacity, " Barkey said.
He said one potential for that is due to growth in Asia, with countries like China beginning to embrace capitalism, as well as a major movement from rural, farming areas there to the cities.
"Holy cow, talk about migration, " he added.
Wendland said he believes technology will both provide new industries and jobs for people to work successfully in this area, and provide the ability to live in Hill County rather than in metropolitan areas.
"Technology is going to drive what happens …, " Wendland said. "Most of (the changes) we've been talking about could happen in the next 25 years. Who knows what might be in a hundred years? "
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