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Editor's Note: The outlook for election night

Election night is always one of the most challenging and most fun for reporters.

It is, at best, organized chaos. That's especially the case when you don't know the outcome in advance. And there are lots of races in Montana and on the Hi-Line where it is very hard to predict the outcomes.

Our website, http://www.havredailynews.com will have the results posted throughout the evening as they trickle in from near and far. The Hill County Clerk and Recorder's Office will be tallying votes, and we will get results from other area counties and from the secretary of state's office which has one of the best websites I have ever seen.

Still, it's a complicated effort, and who knows what time the results will be in.

We will also have reporters on hand at Republican and Democratic headquarters to keep tabs on developments there.

But as votes come in, here are some things to look for.

In State Senate District 17, the most closely watched race, incumbent Democrat Greg Jergeson faces a challenge from State Rep. Kris Hansen, R-Havre.

The reapportionment plan for this part of the state was pretty much drawn by Republicans, so the district does not include Jergeson's home Blaine County. He had to move to Havre so he could reside in the district. He has been a mainstay in Hi-Line politics since the 1970s, having been elected to the Senate several times and twice been elected to the state Public Service Commission.

Hansen has been elected to the House twice, including a surprise landslide win four years ago.

The district looks, as Gov. Rick Perry would say of his home of Texas, like a blueberry in tomato sauce.

In the center of the district is Havre, where about half the people live. It is not the Democratic bastion it once was, but is still dependably blue.

It is surrounded by reliably red Chouteau and Liberty counties, some parts of rural Hill County and northern Cascade County.

Each candidate is trying to cut into the other's strong areas.

Havre is a must-win for Jergeson. But Hansen has been making an effort in the city with mailers, door-to-door stops and radio and newspaper ads.

Hansen needs to do well in the Republican rural areas. Both candidates have been knocking on doors in the areas where doors are few and far between.

Jergeson's people say he will cut into Hansen's margins there because of his support from some moderate Republicans and because he has always done well in rural areas, a prediction dismissed by Republicans, who predict a big Hansen win.

House District 28, which includes the city of Havre and its immediate surroundings, Democrat Havre City Councilwoman Janet Trethewey is taking on Stephanie Hess, a Republican. It is a Democratic district, though Republicans have made gains in recent years.

Hess has conducted a ground campaign, going door to door, There are yards signs supporting her and radio and newspaper ads. But Trethewey has countered with the same kind of approach.

In House District 34, Bruce Meyers has given Republicans hope that the party is alive in one of the most heavily Democratic areas in Montana. The district includes Rocky Boy's and Fort Belknap Indian reservations. To give you an idea how Democratic, two years ago, President Barack Obama carried Rocky Boy by a nearly 20-to-1 margin, and Democratic Sen. Jon Tester swamped central Rocky Boy by an incredible 250-to-1 margin.

But Meyers has conducted a person-to-person campaign on the reservations and in adjacent areas that are largely white. He has also conducted a social media campaign, seeking votes on Facebook.

Brockie says despite the Democratic advantage, she hasn't taken anything for granted. She has worked hard for votes, she said.

(John Kelleher is managing editor of the Havre Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected], 406-265-6795, ext. 17, or 406-390-0798.)

 

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