Where's El Niño?

As summer came to a close, and weather predictions for the impending winter in the Havre area ramped up, fans of a warmer, drier winter were treated to some good news. An El Niño winter was coming and it was reported to be one of the strongest El Niño patterns in recorded history.

Now however, winter is officially one month old, and, at least for Havre and parts of the Hi-Line, the question is: Did El Niño forget about us?

According to Jim Brusda, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Great Falls, from Dec. 16 to Jan. 21, Havre has been 5 degrees below average during that stretch, which means, we are not currently experiencing El Niño conditions, a pattern that typically brings above average temperatures and below average precipitation. However, El Niño patterns are measured in three-month spans, and in that case, in much of November and December, Havre was 2 to 3 degrees above normal.

Still, as winter actually set in, it’s clear that Havre is missing out on the more El Niño-like conditions that are being experienced in other areas of Montana, like Great Falls, Helena and Billings.

“El Niño patterns don’t dismiss one little area,” Brusda said. “But, the effects of it haven’t been felt in the Havre area compared to other parts of Montana. When you look at El Niño, you have to remember that it’s usually only an 80 percent chance that temperatures will be above normal, so there’s still that 20 percent chance that an area will experience a more typical winter. And that’s what Havre has been experiencing lately.”

Havre has indeed fallen into the 20th percentile. For example, Thursday’s average and predicted high was 28 degrees, but Havre rose to only 22 degrees. According to The Weather Channel, Thursday was already the 16th day this month that Havre failed to reach the average high temperature.

So, with so many temps around the state currently reaching into the high 30’s and lower 40’s, and with the U.S. currently locked in a strong El Niño pattern for the next several months, it begs the question: Why can’t Havre have some of the warm weather fun?

According to Brusda, there are a couple of different answers.

“It’s interesting what happened to the Havre area,” he said. “Some signfigant snow fell and there was a cold snap around Dec. 16. And then there was more snow and another cold snap Dec. 22. At that time, with shorter days and a low sun angle, that snowpack stayed on the ground and the cold air settled in. Then, last week, Havre got around four more inches of snow, so there’s a signifigant snow depth there and it just hasn’t eroded, and that allows the cold air to really stay put.”

Another factor in Havre staying colder has been the wind. While most Havreites dislike the wind, a recent lack of wind has helped Havre stay on the colder side of winter, while many other parts of the state have seen balmy January conditions, even places like Browning, Cut Bank and Babb on the Rocky Mountain front — which are normally some of the most wintery places in Montana.

“The warmer air has stayed south of Fort Benton and even in the Bears Paw Mountains,” Brusda said. “When these upper-level ridges come over Montana, they bring warmer air northward, and it’s hit places like Great Falls. But, the winds just haven’t been strong enough to push that warmer air as far north as the Havre area.”

Indeed, Havre just hasn’t seen the effects of El Niño in ways that many other parts of Montana and the U.S. have, but, that doesn’t mean the area won’t warm up, though. According to National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, El Niño is here to stay through spring and, today, Havre could jump into the low 40s, with strong winds accompanying the warmup. That warmup is only temporary, however, as Havre is expected to be back into the high 20s by next week, and Brusda warns that the area could still see more typical winter days in the coming month, than more El Niño-like days.

“They are predicting that the entire northern tier of the U.S. is going to be above average over the next three months, and it looks like the pattern will continue well into summer,” Brusda said. “But, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cold snaps and some below-zero temperatures still.

“But the good news for the Havre area is, February is our driest month,” he added. “And with longer days, Havre has the potential to experience temperatures more like Great Falls has been experiencing. The biggest thing people need to remember about El Niño is, though, that above-average could only mean two or three degrees above average. So, if our average temperatures at night are only eight degrees, that really doesn’t warm it up that much, compared to places in the south where their average temperatures at night is in the 40s or 50s. So, even in El Niño patterns, winter in Montana is still going to feel like winter a lot of the time.”

And winter in Havre has certainly been wintery so far. Now the question is: Will it continue, or will we get a break?