Streams expected to rise and fall in next few days
Flooding should be limited if nights stay cool
Tim Leeds
While warmer days are starting to melt the high levels of snow in Hill and Blaine counties, cooler nights may give the snow a chance to melt off without causing severe flooding, officials said this morning — the first day of National Flood Safety Awareness Week. 
High moisture content in the snow in the northern parts of the counties, along with soil with already high levels of moisture, have led to warnings of flooding this spring. Gina Loss, service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Great Falls said the lows below freezing could moderate those concerns. 
The warm days are likely to raise the levels of streams, however. 
“Our concern for Hill and Blaine counties is so high, I don’t think the warmer weather increased the concern, ” she said. “It’s always been out there. There’s just so much snow out there. 
“With the forecast as it is, it’s geared up to start with some stream flooding, ” Loss added. 
Haley Gustitis, Blaine County's disaster and emergency services coordinator, said this morning that she had not yet received any reports of flooding or water over roads. Those reports could be coming in today, she added, but she also said she believes the cool nights will help slow things down. 
Gustitis asked anyone with information about rising stream levels or flooding, including ice jams on creeks or the Milk River, to call the DES office at 357-3310 or the Blaine County commissioners' office at 357-3250. 
Blaine County government is preparing information to provide to people about how to protect livestock and property as the levels of streams rise, she added. 
Joe Parenteau, Hill County DES coordinator, said this morning that some flooding has occurred on lower Beaver Creek, but no major flood events have occurred at this point. 
“There’s still a lot of snow up above in the (Bear’s Paw Mountains), ” he added. 
Parenteau said some flooding has occurred around Beaver Creek Golf Course and on floodplain areas of property in that region. 
He said Beaver Creek Reservoir, south of Havre, still has a fair amount of capacity to catch runoff, and that level is being monitored and maintained.
***Cold weather helps situation  
Loss said the weather so far has been perfect to start moderate snowmelts in Hill and Blaine counties. 
Earlier, warmer days in other regions already have caused flood watches and required some road closures, she said. 
The Weather Service website reported this morning that a flood warning, meaning flooding is imminent or has been reported, is in effect for Teton and southeastern Pondera counties through this evening, including road closures. 
A flood advisory was in effect through this afternoon in eastern Judith Basin, western Fergus and southern Chouteau counties, with some road closures in those counties. 
But Loss said the warmer weather — including staying above freezing at night — had not hit most of Hill and Blaine counties yet. 
The freezing low temperatures should slow things down, and allow the melting to progress slowly, and the water to move through the system more slowly, she said. 
“This is actually a really good way to start melting that snowpack, ” she said. 
She said the levels of the streams and creeks in Hill and Blaine counties will rise, possibly going over their banks. It eventually will be hitting the Milk River, as well. 
But the cooler night-time temperatures should be bringing the levels back down, with the water courses cycling through high and low levels. 
“We want those temperatures to warm up really gradually, to just start eating at the edge of it, ” Loss said.
***Good and bad news
Loss said members of her team measured the water level in Hill and Blaine counties last week, with mixed results. 
The areas tested in northern Hill County showed lower water levels than predicted by the computer modeling, while areas in northern Blaine County showed higher levels. 
“We were told the Hogeland- Turner area had a lot of snow, ” she said. “If you go up there, there is. There is just no two ways about it. ” 
One location near Turner had 32 inches of snow, with an 11-inch water content level. Another on the road to the town had 11 inches of snow with a 6-inch water content level. 
The computer model underestimated that water equivalent, Loss said. 
In Hill County, the levels at the areas tested were much lower than modeled, although Loss said that estimating total coverage and water content in either county is difficult to do using spot checks. 
In Hill County especially, she said, there are areas with bare spots where the snow has blown away, with coulees and barrow pits next to roads still full of snow. 
In the Hill County tests, some of the computer models had doubled the actual amount of water in the snow, Loss said. One spot about 12 miles north of Havre had an average of 16 inches of snow, with a water level equivalent to 4 inches to 5 inches. The model had predicted 10 inches to 12 inches worth of water.
——— Online: National Weather Service Flood Safety website: www.floodsafety.noaa.gov National disaster preparedness site: www.ready.gov

While warmer days are starting to melt the high levels of snow in Hill and Blaine counties, cooler nights may give the snow a chance to melt off without causing severe flooding, officials said this morning — the first day of National Flood Safety Awareness Week. 

High moisture content in the snow in the northern parts of the counties, along with soil with already high levels of moisture, have led to warnings of flooding this spring. Gina Loss, service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Great Falls said the lows below freezing could moderate those concerns. 

The warm days are likely to raise the levels of streams, however. 

“Our concern for Hill and Blaine counties is so high, I don’t think the warmer weather increased the concern, ” she said. “It’s always been out there. There’s just so much snow out there. 

“With the forecast as it is, it’s geared up to start with some stream flooding, ” Loss added. 

Haley Gustitis, Blaine County's disaster and emergency services coordinator, said this morning that she had not yet received any reports of flooding or water over roads. Those reports could be coming in today, she added, but she also said she believes the cool nights will help slow things down. 

Gustitis asked anyone with information about rising stream levels or flooding, including ice jams on creeks or the Milk River, to call the DES office at 357-3310 or the Blaine County commissioners' office at 357-3250. 

Blaine County government is preparing information to provide to people about how to protect livestock and property as the levels of streams rise, she added. 

Joe Parenteau, Hill County DES coordinator, said this morning that some flooding has occurred on lower Beaver Creek, but no major flood events have occurred at this point. 

“There’s still a lot of snow up above in the (Bear’s Paw Mountains), ” he added. 

Parenteau said some flooding has occurred around Beaver Creek Golf Course and on floodplain areas of property in that region. 

He said Beaver Creek Reservoir, south of Havre, still has a fair amount of capacity to catch runoff, and that level is being monitored and maintained.

Cold weather helps situation  

Loss said the weather so far has been perfect to start moderate snowmelts in Hill and Blaine counties. 

Earlier, warmer days in other regions already have caused flood watches and required some road closures, she said. 

The Weather Service website reported this morning that a flood warning, meaning flooding is imminent or has been reported, is in effect for Teton and southeastern Pondera counties through this evening, including road closures. 

A flood advisory was in effect through this afternoon in eastern Judith Basin, western Fergus and southern Chouteau counties, with some road closures in those counties. 

But Loss said the warmer weather — including staying above freezing at night — had not hit most of Hill and Blaine counties yet. 

The freezing low temperatures should slow things down, and allow the melting to progress slowly, and the water to move through the system more slowly, she said. 

“This is actually a really good way to start melting that snowpack, ” she said. 

She said the levels of the streams and creeks in Hill and Blaine counties will rise, possibly going over their banks. It eventually will be hitting the Milk River, as well. 

But the cooler night-time temperatures should be bringing the levels back down, with the water courses cycling through high and low levels. 

“We want those temperatures to warm up really gradually, to just start eating at the edge of it, ” Loss said.

Good and bad news

Loss said members of her team measured the water level in Hill and Blaine counties last week, with mixed results. 

The areas tested in northern Hill County showed lower water levels than predicted by the computer modeling, while areas in northern Blaine County showed higher levels. 

“We were told the Hogeland- Turner area had a lot of snow, ” she said. “If you go up there, there is. There is just no two ways about it. ” 

One location near Turner had 32 inches of snow, with an 11-inch water content level. Another on the road to the town had 11 inches of snow with a 6-inch water content level. 

The computer model underestimated that water equivalent, Loss said. 

In Hill County, the levels at the areas tested were much lower than modeled, although Loss said that estimating total coverage and water content in either county is difficult to do using spot checks. 

In Hill County especially, she said, there are areas with bare spots where the snow has blown away, with coulees and barrow pits next to roads still full of snow. 

In the Hill County tests, some of the computer models had doubled the actual amount of water in the snow, Loss said. One spot about 12 miles north of Havre had an average of 16 inches of snow, with a water level equivalent to 4 inches to 5 inches. The model had predicted 10 inches to 12 inches worth of water.

Online:

National Weather Service Flood Safety

National disaster preparedness