What a difference a decade makes

While a recent lack of precipitation is starting to dry out the state, as of May, drought conditions in Montana had completely reversed from 10 years earlier.

In May 2004, the entire state except for the four most northeastern counties was listed in drought alert to severe drought conditions.

The map for May of this year shows the entire state - except for Beaverhead and Madison counties - in slightly moist to extremely moist conditions.

Beaverhead and Madison counties both were listed as near average for moisture. On the national drought monitor map released this week, the southern parts of those counties are the only areas of Montana listed shown as a concern, with an "abnormally dry" listing.

In 2004 the state was just starting to move out of a time that had for several years kept most of the state listed in drought to "exceptional drought" conditions, with the worst conditions often centered over north-central Montana.

That reversed to the other extreme by the start of this decade, with flooding leading to disaster declarations in this part of Montana in three of the last four years.

The Governors' Report on the Potential for Flooding and Drought released in June said that the potential for drought through July is low as far as surface water uses, although dryland farming has a low to moderate chance of drought impacts if valleys and plains do not receive at least average precipitation in the next few months.

The Governor's Drought and Water Supply Committee is meeting next Thursday to review the water situation in the state.

Soil starting to dry out

While the region is not in drought conditions - and, as of the moment, not in flood stage, either - much of the state including north-central Montana is dropping off in precipitation in recent weeks.

A drop in high temperatures, generally coming in below normal, has kept that from impacting the state as much as it could, but the recent lack of moisture has started to impact crops in the area.

Peggy Lamb, research scientist in agronomy at the Northern Agricultural Research Center at Fort Assinniboine southwest of Havre, said the center received an inch less than normal precipitation in May, and crops in the region are starting to show it.

"It went from really wet to really, really dry," Lamb said.

The crops, especially winter wheat, are just starting to stress, she said.

"We have good deep-soil moisture, but we are in a need of a good rain ... ," Lamb said. "If we got moisture now, it would be awesome. It would definitely help things rebound."

Darrin Boss, superintendent of NARC, said the soil is drying up and it is starting to hurt the haycrops. The cool spring delayed initial growth and now the lack of rain in recent weeks is slowing it more, he said, although he added that rain in the next week or so could help.

"Even the rangeland is starting to dry up," Boss said.

And that is happening, on average, around the state. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistic Service reports that soil moisture is dropping.

The report released Monday showed the state average for topsoil had 28 percent in short to very short of moisture status, up from 17 percent the week before.

That compared to 10 percent in short to very short status the same week in 2013, and to a five-year average of 13 percent.

The average includes several years of flooding in parts of Montana, including the spring of 2011 that led to a federal disaster declaration for four Indian reservations and more than 30 counties, including the Rocky Boy's and Fort Belknap reservations and Blaine, Chouteau and Hill counties.

Rain drops off

North-central Montana has seen a marked reduction of precipitation in the last few weeks, with a Western Regional Climate Center map showing north-central and central Montana receiving three-quarters to two-and-a-quarter inches of precipitation less than the norm from May 11 through June 9.

That has led to a marked drop in the cumulative amount of moisture received in the region.

By the end of April, the National Weather Service recording station at the airport west of Havre had recorded .92 inches for the month, just more than the normal value of .84 inches. That brought the total for the year to 2.72 inches, .73 inches more than the normal value.

That precipitation also brought Havre to 4.33 inches for the water year, measured from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30, 1.33 inches more than the normal value.

By the end of May, Havre had received just more than half of the normal amount for the month, .97 inches. The norm is 1.74 inches.

That brought the total for the calendar year to 3.69 inches, three-hundredths of an inch short of the norm.

By Wednesday, Havre had received only .19 inches for the month, compared to a norm of .83. That dropped the cumulative amount even further, with Havre now almost three-quarters of an inch below the norm for the calendar year and below the norm for the water year by .08 inches.

But at the same time, the cooler temperatures - high temperatures across north-central Montana have averaged 1 degree to 4 degrees lower than normal - have mitigated the impact of the lower levels of precipitation so far.

Cool to normal temps, more rain expected

A prediction for June released by Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center May 31 shows eastern to part of north-central and central Montana with a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of below-normal temperatures and most of the state with a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of above-normal precipitation.

The longer-range prediction, July through August, shows the the state west of the Continental Divide with a 33 percent chance of above-normal temperatures and much of the state, except along the northern edge and northeast and northwest portions, with a 33 percent chance of above-normal precipitation. The rest of the state in all of the predictions is listed as having an even chance for more or less than normal precipitation or higher or lower than normal temperatures.