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Warm this week, winter - who knows?

Forecasts in the future are widely varied

After a chilly, frosty, snowy mid-September week last week, the weather has turned around this week with forecasters predicting summery 80s for highs and lows in the 50s this week.

How that will proceed in the months ahead depends on who is talking, with almanacs predicting bitter cold and plenty of snow in Montana through the winter, but National Weather Service predicting a good chance of El Niño conditions with above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall.

Last week, a storm blew in from Canada, missing Havre and points directly east on the Hi-Line but dropping some wet stuff west on the Hi-Line and in the Bear Paw Mountains. The main storm hit further south and east, with more wintry weather in Wyoming and South Dakota.

That was followed by freezing temperatures, with lows dropping into the 20s.

While the cold and snow were early, the weather did not set any new records for early snowfall or cold in this area.

It followed a year with up-and-down weather conditions. After a wet fall last year, much of the state stayed mostly dry, although heavy storms brought some moisture early in the winter.

The spring turned dry and cool, delaying crop development, then the rains started coming in June.

After sporadic but sometimes locally heavy rains, a soaker set in in mid-August, delaying harvest and cutting into crop quality for some farmers, while setting positive conditions for fall seeding.

Then last week’s cold snap brought a preview of winter, followed by this week’s predicted return of summer.

The highs and lows in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday are 10 degrees above the norm for this time of year in the 80s and 50s, respectively. The forecast also calls for mostly sunny skies and no predicted precipitation.

But forecasts a month or two in the future are widely varied.

The Climate and Prediction Center of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, which also operates National Weather Service, reports that El Niño conditions now are neutral. An El Niño, in which weather on the equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal, generally brings warmer, dryer weather to this part of the United States.

But the prediction center reports a 60 percent to 65 percent chance of El Niño conditions developing through the late fall and winter. That corresponds with the long-range prediction of 30 percent to 40 percent chances of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for much of the state through early winter, although the prediction for April is for normal chances of precipitation.

But the Old Farmers Almanac predicts colder and snow temperatures in this area as early as October, and Farmers Almanac predicts a wide band of cold from the Continental Divide through the Great Lakes.

“The coldest outbreak of the season will come during the final week of January into the beginning of February, when frigid arctic air drops temperatures across the Northern Plains to perhaps 40 below zero,” the Farmers Almanac forecaster wrote on its website.

He also noted the Weather Service El Niño watch, saying that could change the weather patterns and what happens over the winter.

But, the forecaster, who goes by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherby, wrote that the staff members at The Farmers Almanac recommend people stock up on firewood, sweaters and hot cocoa.

“It certainly looks like another long winter of shivery and shovelry is on tap,” he wrote on the website.

 

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