Scientists discuss Montana ag adapting to climate change

Scientists spoke Friday at the Northern Agricultural Research Center about a recently completed study that explores past and projected climate warming and what affect it will have on Montana's water availability and agriculture.

One of the major goals of the project - the group has been traveling the state holding talks - is to inform people, especially ag producers, so they can adapt as it relates to production and economic output, said assessment co-author and lead author of the agriculture chapter Bruce Maxwell.

Maxwell is also the co-director of the Montana Institute on Ecosystem at Montana State University in Bozeman.

"We got to understand what your needs are," Kevin Hyde of the Montana Climate Office said during the forum. "The data is to anticipate, to get a better sense of how to adapt - where are we going?"

Climate has been changing and continues to change, and those to whom it is most obvious are ag producers, Maxwell said.

"Overwhelmingly we're hearing 'Yes.' We don't have to convince them. They see it day to day on their place," Maxwell said. "We're in a new atmospheric world."

Two Montana producers, Fort Benton organic farmer Casey Bailey and Power malt barley producer Erik Somerfeld, spoke during a panel conversation at the end about how climate changes have altered their approach to growing.

"We're seeding earlier and earlier every year," Somerfeld said. "When I was a kid it was unusual to be seeding in April ... Now I'm in the field in March."

Information Maxwell said the group has learned from their traveling listening sessions is that people want long-term - six months - weather predictions, they want to increase prediction accuracy with on-farm and ranch weather stations, they would like to know about growing season precipitation pattern changes at farm scale, what the best adapted crops and forage species are for the changing climate and what livestock breeds are able to tolerate heat stress, and people want updated information accessible by cellphone.

But not everyone who attended the forum Friday was convinced the models Maxwell, Hyde and MCM co-author Whitney Lonsdale of Montana Water Center cited are reliable.

James Calhoon of Havre asked, during a segment of Hyde's presentation that included an image tracking warming over the last century, how human-caused warming could have been happening in the 1920s when "people weren't doing anything to change the temperature."

Calhoon said, all the major "accepted theories" are government-funded and intentionally designed to come to the same conclusion for the purpose of imposing taxes on people.

"I find their modeling suspect," Calhoon said.

Hyde and Maxwell told Calhoon they weren't going to get into the discussion of climate change causes. As scientists, the goal is to look at the evidence and inform people about it and that's where they wanted to keep the conversation.

The extensive 2017 Montana Climate Assessment, which also includes a chapter on the affect of climate change on Montana forests, lists 32 contributors.

It was funded by the National Science Foundation, which receives funding from the government, Maxwell said after the presentation. However, he added, there are built-in mechanisms to ensure scientific integrity.

"We had three levels of reviews," Maxwell said,

There was an in-house review during which scientists who did not contribute to the study reviewed the study; there were reviews by state agencies; "and then we went back to the national climate interests to review it," Maxwell said.

"Far more review than I've had for any science activity. ... We have lots of mechanisms to try and be unbiased," Maxwell said.

The MCM says several projection models were used to arrive at its findings and projections. Those findings, which models strongly agreed on, were that Montana has been warming, it will continue to do so and as that happens, water will become an issue.

Annual average temperatures, including daily minimums, maximums and averages, have risen across the state between 1950 and 2015; the increases range between 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit during this period, the assessment says. Montana is projected to continue to warm in all geographic locations and seasons, and under all emission scenarios throughout the 21st century and by mid-century. By the end of century, Montana temperatures are projected to increase 5.6 to 9.8 degrees, depending on the emission scenario. The state-level changes are larger than the average changes projected globally and nationally.

In regards to water, the assessment says, rising temperatures will reduce snowpack, shift historical patterns of streamflow in Montana and likely result in additional stress on Montana's water supply, particularly during summer and early fall.

"There's fairly high confidence that we're going to have reduction in snowpack," said Lonsdale, who contributed to the water chapter.

The projections are less certain when it comes to precipitation, Hyde and Maxwell said.

"Because we don't have a lot of confidence on precipitation (projections), it makes it crucial about what we could say about agriculture," Maxwell said.

Moderate model agreement suggests precipitation will increase across the state and that will include strong seasonal differences such as more summer droughts and more fall and winter precipitation.

Temperature increases will allow winter weeds like cheatgrass to increase in distribution and frequency in winter wheat and cropland and rangeland. The spread of cheatgrass will result in decreased crop yields and forage productivity, the study says.

However, the changes aren't all bad, Maxwell said.

The study says native plant vegetation will increase and, for some, longer warmer climates, means longer growing seasons.

"Twenty years ago you couldn't find a red tomato in Bozeman - now you can," Maxwell said. "The people who will probably benefit the most from the longer warmer seasons are the gardeners, the guys with the farmers markets, they can grow a lot more for longer, so it's not all doom and gloom."