Summer outlook: It could be a hot one

After two historically bad one’s, the winter of 2019-2020 was anything but. In Havre, temperatures were more than seven degrees above normal from Dec. 1 to Feb. 29, while a meager 13 inches of snow fell in that same timeframe.

By Havre standards, the winter wasn’t just mild, it was downright balmy.

Now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that, the summer months will be warm for Havre, too.

NOAA released its full summer outlook last week, and for Havre, the Hi-Line and north-central Montana, the outlook calls for above-normal temperatures and slightly below-average precipitation.

Half of Montana, including the Havre area, is given a better than 40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures from June 1 to Aug. 30, which is considered the meteorological summer. Broken down by month, the chances for above-average temperatures are higher for June and July, each at more than a 60 percent chance of above normal. August is still slated to be above normal as well, but the chance goes back down to 40 percent.

The average daily high for June is 77 degrees, while July is 86 degrees and August is 84 degrees for Havre. Average nightly lows range from 49 in June to 52 in August, with July being the warmest month at 54.

In comparison, last summer, Havre averaged six degrees below normal for the same three months, with June of 2019 being a stunning nine degrees below normal.

On the side of precipitation, Havre is doing well after a dryer-than-normal winter. According to the National Weather Service in Great Falls. Havre received 11.1 inches of new snow in the month of April, which was nearly a record. It hasn’t snowed a measurable amount in May, so Havre’s current snow total for the season sits at 77.2 inches, which is still more than 40 inches above normal. Havre has seen a significant amount of rain in May though, with more than 4.4 inches being recorded thus far.

So, Havre is doing well on the moisture side of things, but that could change. According to NOAA, the Havre area and most of Montana has a 50 percent chance of seeing below-average precipitation from June 1 to Aug. 30. August is slated to be the driest month with a better-than-70 percent chance of below-average precip.

The entire state of Montana is slated to be below average this summer, with the chances increasing to nearly 70 percent west of the Continental Divide. Still, snowpack has been above average in 2020, so NOAA is not projecting a potential drought for any portion of Montana at present time.

As for the heat and possible lack of rain this summer, that always leads to the talk of fire season. The National Interagency Fire Center released its National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for 2020 earlier this month. It said for the Northern Rockies region, which includes all of Montana, that normal significant large fire potential is expected for the region, except for western Montana, which is above normal. In other words, right now, a normal fire season is expected, but that can change.

Of course, it’s Montana, so, the weather can and will change, and so too will the forecasts. But, the outlook is calling for heat this summer, and that includes the last weekend in May. Saturday’s high is predicted to hit 84 degrees, and the NWS in Great Falls is saying that Havre has a potential to reach 90 degrees on Sunday. The remainder of the 10-day outlook calls for temperatures in the low 80s through next weekend, with potential for showers and thunderstorms starting next Monday and last all the way through next weekend.