Winter starts out dry in the region

It may not look like it. It certainly doesn't feel like it. But, the meteorological winter has arrived. And what's in store for Havre and north-central Montana over the next three months is anybody's guess.

Forecasters have been predicting a second straight winter of a weak to moderate La NIña pattern, and while it has taken hold in parts of the country, especially the Pacific Northwest, it has failed to adversely affect Montana, our area much.

"Generally, (La Niña) means a greater chance for cooler, wetter weather for this region," Austin McDowell of the National Weather Service Great Falls said. "But one thing to keep in mind about that is, you might have two months of abnormally dry and warm, and then one really abnormally cold and wet month that will offset it all and you end up with a typical or average La Niña winter. So that can happen. La Niña doesn't mean that pattern will exist for the entire three months."

If La Niña does mean cold and snow, Havre hasn't seen that yet. 

For the fall, Havre measured no snow in September, 1.9 inches in October, all of which fell on Oct. 30, and 1.8 inches in November. The average snowfall amount for fall in Havre is eight inches, so Havre is well below average to this point. 

"Recently, we've seen trending towards a chance for above-average precipitation, and that has happened west of the Continental Divide in Montana," McDowell said. "But it just hasn't made its way east. It's trending in that direction, but it just hasn't happened yet."

Yet is the operative word. Winter has only just begun, and the chances for a turnaround are still there.

Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its most updated three-month outlook, and it still has all of Montana with a 40 percent to 60 percent chance of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation from December to March. December alone, however, is forecast to have an equal chance for slightly above-average or above-average temperatures and average to slightly below-average precipitation.

If that trend holds, it would follow last year's winter pattern, which was also a weak La Niña, that ended up being dry and warm for Havre and much of Montana, especially in December and the first part of January. And if that pattern persists, the Havre area would still be considered in a moderate to severe drought, which it was in the fall.

However, McDowell said, that can change.

"In the winter, it would only really take one month of above average precipitation to catch the area up on average precipitation," he said. "That can still happen. There's plenty of time for that."

Indeed. In line with the La Niña pattern that is now in place, The 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac comes with a winter warning: Prepare for a "Season of Shivers." This winter will be punctuated by positively bone-chilling, below-average temperatures across most of the United States.

"This coming winter could well be one of the longest and coldest that we've seen in years," says Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer's Almanac. For 230 years, the Almanac has been helping readers to prepare for winter's worst with its 80 percent–accurate weather forecasts.

In some places, the super cold of the coming winter will also bring lots of snow. This extreme wintry mix is expected in areas of New England as well as throughout the Ohio Valley, in northern portions of the Deep South, and in southeast New Mexico.

Above-average snowfall is also in the forecast along a track from eastern Montana southward through the western halves of the Dakotas and into northeastern Colorado. While temperatures in this midcountry strip will be relatively normal, snowfall will be abundant, with several storms predicted throughout the winter. Meanwhile, most western areas will remain relatively dry, with all but the Pacific Coast itself and portions of the Southwest experiencing the frigid cold predicted for much of the rest of the country.

If that forecast holds true, Havre could experience a similar winter to that of 2018, which smashed many records, or the winter of 2019, which saw one of the coldest February's ever. 

Still, that all remains to be seen. As the area saw last year, a weak La Niña is extremely unpredictable.

"One thing to point out, just because there's a probability for below-average temperatures or above-average precipitation , that doesn't mean that's the way the winter will be from beginning to end," McDowell said. "Those are certainly the trends, but the weather will still vary throughout the next three months."

In the short term, December looks to open with above-average temperatures and around-average precipitation, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. For Havre, southwest winds will continue to gust over the next 72 hours, bringing with them, well above average temperatures through Thursday. Today, Havre is set to break a Dec. 1 record with a predicted high of 65 degrees, with afternoon gusts expected to reach 55 miles per hour. For the rest of the week, temperatures will fall into the mid 30's which is average, with slight chances for snow on Friday and Saturday. Next week, temperatures will climb back into the 40s with more wind also in the forecast.

So, one thing is certain, this winter figures to be a wild one, and one that won't be easy to predict.