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Snow brings moisture but drought lingers

Editor's note: A version of this story ran in the January Farm and Ranch special section.

Recent weeks have finally brought some wintry weather to the northern part of Montana, including some snow and moisture, but while cold, snowy La Niña winter weather could help, forecasters say drought is likely to persist.

In the U.S. Drought Monitor report released today, most of Montana still is listed as being in drought, with the only patch not listed as in drought - the northwestern corner of the state - listed as mostly no drought with some abnormally dry conditions.

A patch from the south west to north-central part of the state, including most of Chouteau County and southern Liberty, Hill and Blaine counties, is listed in the most severe drought category, exceptional drought, surrounded by exteme drought.

The southern part of the state is listed in severe drought.

Much of the rest of the state is listed in extreme drought, with the southeastern part of the state listed as in severe drought.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts that the drought conditions are likely to improve for much of the state but still persist.

The prediction through the end of March forecasts that the northwestern corner of the state is likely to stay out of drought conditions but most of the state will improve and remain in drought conditions, except in the southwest corner and along the borders of North and South Dakota, where drought is expected to persist.

Colder and wetter-than normal conditions are expected to continue in this region through the winter, then return to a more normal weather pattern in the spring.

That forecast hinges on a La Niña pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which the Climate Prediction Center says is 90 percent likely to impact the United States in the next few months.

In a La Niña pattern, cooler temperatures in the equatorial Pacific often lead to colder, wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and across into the Northern Plains.

The pattern doesn't guarantee colder or snowier days - the same pattern was in effect last year during a warmer- and dryer-than-normal winter - but the chance of seeing colder temperatures and higher precipitation is higher during a La Niña.

A chance to catch up

Despite the snow in the past few weeks - National Weather Service reported that Havre received 12 inches by Dec. 31, more than four inches above the norm of 7.9 inches for that calendar day - and has received a trace of snow this month, the state is still far below where it should be for moisture.

The 12 inches of December snow for Havre translates to .76 inches of precipitation for December by the 28th, again ahead of the norm of .40 inches for that calendar day.

But the total for the calendar year was 7.69 inches, far short of the norm of 11.82 inches.

If moisture continues through the winter and spring, it could help catch up on the water deficit.

After a slightly wet August - Havre recorded 1.04 inches of precipitation for the month, compared to a normal value of .89 inches - the precipitation dropped off starting in September, which recorded almost no precipitiation.

Havre recorded .05 inches of precipitation that month, compared to a norm of 1.03 inches - normally one of the wetter months in the region.

The precipitation improved in October and November, with the station in Havre recording almost- but not-quite-normal levels of precipitation. Havre saw .66 inches compared to a normal value of .69 inches for October and .42 inches compared to a normal level of .48 inches for November.

The recent precipitation brought Havre to above the normal level for the water year that starts Oct. 1, though it was still far short on the calendar year.

For the water year, Weather Service listed 1.8 inches recorded at its Havre station, compared to a normal value on Jan 5 - the date for which the data applied - of 1.72 inches.

If the region continues to get above-normal precipitation in the next few months, it could make up the water deficit it has experienced in the past year.

A bizarre precipitation year

It was an up-and-down year - mainly water year - for precipitation.

January through March in 2020 generally saw a surprisingly mild winter, though a La Niña-impacted forecast with colder temperatures and above-average precipitation was predicted the previous fall.

Havre saw the 19th-driest period for December 2019 through February 2020, with Havre receiving just more than 14 inches of snow for that period.

But that followed very heavy snow in September, October and November.

The temperatures dropped and snow fell in some parts of February 2020 but not enough to make up previous shortfalls.

More snow - and some record cold - hit in March and April, but the summer of 2020 turned hot and dry, leading to fire restrictions by late summer.

Then cold and snow hit again. Record-cold temperatures were recorded in October 2020, with Havre breaking a 139-year-old record, then snow in early November 2020 closed schools and roads.

Then the winter weather stopped, including the second-lowest amount of snow for Havre, .7 inches, in recorded weather history for December.

The only winter recording less snow for Havre in December was 2001, with no snow on record.

Just a trace of snow was recorded for January, and temperatures also were well-above average.

February did see cold days and some snow including winter weather advisories in the area in the early part of the month, with deep-freeze temperatures hitting the area the second and third weeks of the month.

A snowstorm hit the area in early March, but fire watches were being issued - and fires being put out - by the end of the month.

With conditions rapidly drying out, Montana State University Extension started holding workshops in dealing with drought by April.

Some snowfall still hit the area in May, but scorching heat was here by June, with heat advisories and highs near or above 100 degrees.

June 15, National Weather Service's recording station at Little Bullwhacker Creek in Blaine County recorded 105 degrees, beating the previous record for June 15 set in 1987 at 98 degrees.

Several high temperatures in the region were close to that, with several new records, but Weather Service said that, while the heat wave is unusual, it is not unprecedented.

Harlem set a record of 107 degrees June 4 in 1988, and the highest temperature in this region - 106 at Armells Creek in Fergus County - tied the record set in Chinook June 15, 1933.

The state high June 15 was at Brandenberg, 111 degrees.

Havre City-County Airport recorded a high temperature of 104 degrees Fahrenheit, beating the previous record of 102 degrees set in 1933.

Fort Belknap Indian Reservation's recording station in Blaine County also saw 104 degrees, beating the previous record for the day of 84 degrees, set in 2003, by 20 degrees with Harlem hitting 103, beating its previous record of 102 in 1933, Hogeland seeing 101, with its previous record not available, and Chester hitting 97 degrees, with the previous record 87 degrees in 1995.

While the record-breaking high temperatures dropped a bit after that, heat was still impacting the region and burn bans were going into place by the end of that month.

And fires soon were starting in the area, although many were caught and contained quickly.

That was not the case for the Pine Grove Fire, which led to evacuations for Zortman and Landusky and the Pine Grove community on Fort Belknap Indian Reservation, and warnings were in place for Hays and Lodge Pole.

That fire burned more than 10,000 acres before cooler weather and some precipitation in August helped slow and stop the fire.

Problems for hay and other crops

The heat also caused problems aside from fires for ag producers, especially regarding hay.

North-central Montana was in the midst of a serious hay shortage, the result of a perfect storm of severe drought conditions, a population explosion of grasshoppers and blister beetles, and the effects of 2020's drop failure at the St. Mary Diversion.

Montana State University Hill County Extension Agriculture and 4-H Agent Colleen Buck said the drought conditions and less-than-ideal nitrate levels in the soil made it difficult to grow much of anything and a lot of people had trouble finding the hay they need to feed their livestock.

The shortage was severe enough that it has caused some to have to sell cattle younger and earlier in the season because they don't have enough hay to winter them.

Montana State University Blaine County Extension Agriculture and 4-H Agent Juli Snedigar said things in her county were very serious both for cattle and hay producers.

Snedigar said she saw producers have to sell off cattle they couldn't afford to keep, and the state of the hay market is such that even those who do have hay to sell are worried about how to price it.

She said the general drought conditions and hot weather were further exacerbated by the drop structure collapse in 2020 at the St. Mary Diversion which supplies water to the area's irrigators.

The diversion is one of the most important infrastructure projects in the region. Unfortunately, the catastrophic drop collapse in May of 2020 was the culmination of years of warnings that were not followed up on in time.

Emergency repairs to the diversion were completed 2020, and efforts by Montana's congressional delegation to see the project funded continue.

Snedigar said all of this has further compounded 2021's population explosion of grasshoppers which has plagued hay producers.

Buck said these are the offspring of the previous year's grasshoppers that had a population boom of their own.

Snedigar said the grasshoppers are are especially bad to the east.

Producers said they were really feeling the effects of the shortage.

The grasshopper population brought with it an increase in blister beetles. These beetles feed on grasshopper eggs and are very dangerous to livestock if eaten.

While the insects usually are found in alfalfa, their numbers this year caused them to move into grass hay.

Finally some snow

Some precipitation did hit the area and it saw snow and cooler weather the start of November.

National Weather Service said Monday, Nov. 1, the reporting station at the Havre City-County Airport recorded .66 inches of precipitation for October, with more than a half-inch of that falling that weekend.

The station recorded 1.9 inches of snow in October, in a storm that hit Oct. 29 night and continued into Oct. 30.

It left a blanket of snow on the ground, although most of it had melted off by Saturday night.

After seeing lows just-below to well-above freezing the previous week - the Havre station recorded a low of 39 just before midnight Oct. 27 - the temperatures started to drop, with the thermometer dropping to 31 degrees by 7:08 a.m. Oct. 28 before climbing back to 55 later in the day.

It hit 31 again about 7 a.m. Oct. 30, then climbed back to 65.

With snow falling, temperatures dropped to 31 by 11:25 a.m. Halloween day, then hit a high of 37 degrees by that afternoon.

The temperature dropped to a chilly 21 degrees just before midnight, and went down to a frigid Halloween temperature of 14 degrees Sunday morning at 7:20 a.m.

It hit 38 at the Havre station Sunday before dropping down to 12 degrees overnight.

And it was chillier in other parts of the area, with Weather Service reporting a temperature of 6 degrees in Harlem, Rocky Boy and Big Sandy at 9 a.m. Nov. 1.

Drought continues

While the precipitation helped, it was not nearly enough to turn things around.

In Havre, for example, the .66 inches for October didn't even bring the region to its normal amount for the month. October normally sees .75 inches of precipitation for Havre.

And for the calendar year, it left the region more than a third short of normal. Since Jan. 1, the Havre station has seen 6.51 inches with the normal value 10.93 inches.

For the Oct. 1 to Sept. 30 water year, the monthly total was .66 inches to a normal value of .75 inches, but the region went in with a significant water deficit.

For the water year ending Sept. 30 last year, Havre had a recorded value of 7.41 - National Weather Service meteorologist Christian Cassell said the third-lowest water year on record for Havre - with a normal value of 11.82 inches.

Cassell said Havre's driest water year on record was in 87-88 with 5.38 inches.

He said this year's period from June to October was the driest on record for Havre with 2.83 inches. The normal value is 6.75 inches.

But more snow is in the near forecast, with a winter weather advisory in place for much of the state east of the Continental Divide -  a blizzard warning is in effect along the northern Rocky Mountain Front and a winter storm warning west of the divide - with 2 to 5 inches predicted in lower elevations in Chouteau County and 1 inch to 3 inches in lower elevations in Liberty, Hill and Blaine counties and 3 to 6 inches in the mountains.

 

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