Republicans do well in midterms in Montana

While Republicans did not do as well as they hoped on the national stage in the midterms, Montana seems very likely to see a Republican supermajority in the state Legislature, a prospect Democrats were dreading.

Montana’s election results have yet to be canvassed and thus remain unofficial, but if current tallies hold, seats picked up in the Senate will increase GOP control there and their commanding control of the House seems to have only gotten stronger as well.

Democratic candidates around the state, including in Hill County, made the prospect of a Republican supermajority a big part of their messaging, with many fearing that there would be little to stop a further empowered Republican party from voting to change the state constitution.

While Democrats have sounded the alarm about a number of effects they fear this could have, the most obvious is how it could affect women’s reproductive rights, which the Montana Supreme Court has maintained are largely protected under the state’s constitution.

Among those Democrats was Paul Tuss, who unseated incumbent Republican Ed Hill in House District 28, one of only two flips for Democrats this week. Tuss has said many times that he fears for the future of the state should a supermajority be gained by the Republicans.

On election night, before any results had come in, Hill County Democratic Central Committee Chair Lindsay Ratliff said Paul Tuss ran an effective campaign with a lot of energy and she thinks it will pay off.

Ratliff also echoed his concerns about the constitution and the privacy protections it offers Montanans.

On the local level, she said, the quality of the Hi-Line’s representation in Helena is at stake in Tuss’ race, and if he wins, the area will have a fair, independently minded representative and an effective advocate for the local economy.

“If we don’t see some change, in House District 28 especially, Havre’s going to be left to whatever the majority party in Helena wants,” she said.

Her hopes for Tuss’ race were rewarded, as were her hopes for local Democrat Sheri Williams, who unseated incumbent Republican Diane McLean in a race for a seat on the Hill County Commission.

Ratliff said Williams put an incredible amount of effort into her campaign.

“She really hit the pavement running,” she said.

Ratliff expressed less confidence in the race between Democrat Dave Brewer and incumbent Republican Russ Tempel and between Democrat Jordan Ophus and incumbent Republican Casey Knudsen, but whatever happens there, she felt they were holding their opponents to account.

Her suspicions were well founded, as both Brewer and Ophus lost their races by significant margins.

As for local Republicans, Hill County Republican Central Committee Chair Andrew Brekke appeared to be a bit more confident that night before the results started coming in.

Brekke said he was feeling good and thinks turnout will be good, which generally advantages incumbents.

“We feel pretty good about things,” Brekke said.

He said he thought the race between Hill and Tuss would be close, but he had full confidence that Tempel would do well against Brewer.

“Dave isn’t even here (in Havre),” he said.

Brewer and his wife, Denise, were out of town celebrating their 50th wedding anniversary that night.

As for the commissioner’s race, Brekke said, he didn’t think anyone could predict that one.

When asked what was at stake that night, he said, “Well, everything.”

While Brekke’s hopes for Hill’s race did not pan out, his confidence in Tempel was well-placed, and while Republicans didn’t do as well on the national stage as some had hoped, they had a good night at the state level, at least when it came to the Legislature.

While Montana Supreme Court races are non-partisan, James Brown, running against incumbent Justice Ingrid Gustafson, and Bill D’Alton, running against incumbent Justice Jim Rice, were both supported largely by conservatives, both lost, the second by a 55-point margin.

While results are still coming in from some states, it seems clear that the “red wave” that many national-level Republicans were hoping for and expected just didn’t happen.

While control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance with a Georgia runoff coming and a couple contentious races still undecided, Democrats holding off a Republican majority is a real possibility, and while it is almost a guarantee that Republicans will maintain control of the House, that majority doesn’t look like it will be nearly as large as they hoped.

Despite the midterms being a solid night for Democrats, Montana sent two Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale keep his seat in the U.S. House in a race against Democrat Penny Ronning, Libertarian Sam Rankin and independent Gary Buchanan, and Republican Ryan Zinke won his race against Democrat Monica Tranel and Libertarian John Lamb, also for a seat in the U.S. House.