Wintry weather still expected to hit over the weekend

The autumn weather this region has been seeing the last few weeks is expected to turn to some cooler temperatures with rain and snow over the weekend, and the winter forecast released today by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a good chance that will continue through January.

NOAA's National Weather Service put a red-flag fire warning in effect for today east of the Continental Divide including Blaine, Chouteau, Hill and Liberty counties, due to high temps, expected to be in the 70s, low humidity and gusty winds. The advisory warns that any spark could ignite a new fire and those would be difficult to contain due to the humidity and gusty winds.

But after seeing days with highs in the 60s and 70s and many lows in the 40s - it has dropped below freezing a couple of times in the past two weeks - the forecast calls for rain to start falling, including a chance of showers tonight and showers likely Friday with rain likely Friday night.

That rain is expected to continue Saturday and is likely to turn to rain and snow through Sunday night.

Highs are expected to be in the 50s Friday and 40s through early next week, with lows expected to drop into the 30s and then to the upper 20s by Tuesday.

The precipitation is expected to drop off Monday and Tuesday but a slight chance of rain and snow is expected Wednesday, with a slight increase in high temperatures - Havre has a forecasted high of 50 Wednesday.

And the winter forecast released by NOAA today expects higher-than-normal precipitation and lower-than-normal temperatures in this area for the next three months, primarily due to a triple-dip La Niña.

A La Niña is when temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are below normal, and typically causes cooler, wetter winter weather across the northern part of the United States and hotter, dryer weather in the south.

This is the third-straight year of a La Niña, which is unusual and typically increases those impacts, although the last two years of La Niña have not brought severe winters to this region.

In a release this morning, NOAA said that, starting in December and through February, the administration predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

The forecast predicts a 40 precent to 50 percent chance of higher-than normal prediction for the west half of Montana with a 33 percent to 40 percent chance across the eastern part of the state.

The forecast predicts a 40 percent to 50 precent chance of below-normal temperatures in the northern half of Montana for the next three months.

But that is not likely to bring the region out of drought, with the prediction forecasting this area to remain in drought for the next several months at least.

A years-long moisture deficit will take high levels of precipitation for some time to overcome the drought. In Havre, the Weather Service system has recored 7.09 inches of precipitation this year, with the normal amount for Oct. 19 10.69 inches.

And the region's water deficit is worse over several years. In Havre, the normal amount of precipitation that would have fallen since Jan. 1, 2020, through Oct. 12, the last date for which data is available, is 34.17 inches. The amount that actually fell is 24-15 inches, leaving Havre at a 10-inch moisture deficit in almost three years.